Assessing future nitrogen fertilizer demand

Inefficiencies in global cropland nitrogen use have led to the dissemination of reactive nitrogen throughout the hydrosphere. Assessing the future N input requirements and N use in agriculture for the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) reveals a range of possible future synthetic fertilizer inputs from 85-260 Tg N yr−1 .

Importantly, apart for the sustainability SSP1, where N use efficiencies exceed 60% globally, all other scenarios are projected to exceed acceptable limits of excess N in developing regions.